Nassau, 29 October 2024 – The Global Market Forecast 2024 (GMF) projects the region’s fleet is set to almost double by 2043. The fleet will grow from 1,560 to 2,670 over the next 20 years. Of the new deliveries, 90% will continue to be typical single-aisle and 10% typical widebody aircraft.
Representing two thirds of the total population in 2043, the growth of the middle class is expected to increase demand for air travel, both for leisure and business purposes. In Latin America yearly trips are expected to grow from 0.48 annual trips per capita in 2023 to 0.94 annual trips per capita in 2043. Travel rates per capita will double in Peru and more than double in Brazil, Chile and Colombia.
Domestic and international passenger traffic in Latin America is expected to grow at an annual rate of 5.5% until 2027 as a result of the pandemic recovery. In the medium to long term, traffic will return to pre-pandemic trends and is expected to have an annual growth rate of 3.6% between 2028 and 2043.
According to the Latin American GMF forecast, Latin America's fleet age is slightly below the global average. Currently, 37% of the passenger aircraft in service are of the latest generation, compared to 30% globally. Latin America is in a renewal phase, resulting in a fleet with an average age of less than 10 years. The short term priority to decarbonise the sector is to replace the remaining 63%, which could result in CO2 savings of around 25% compared to previous generation aircraft - across the Airbus Family.
With the region’s fleet set to almost double by 2043, the workforce will be key. The latest Global Services Forecast (GSF) 2024-2043 projects there will be a cumulative need for an additional 136,000 professionals over the next 20 years, including 46,000 new technicians, 36,000 new pilots and 54,000 new cabin crew members. The Latin American market for commercial aircraft services is expected to nearly double with a compound annual growth rate of 3.6%.
Airbus has sold over 1,300 aircraft in Latin America and the Caribbean and has a leading market share of in-service passenger aircraft. Around 800 are in operation throughout the region, with close to 500 in the order backlog. Since 1994, Airbus has secured 75% of net orders in the region.
Global Market Forecast
2024-2043
