China aviation services market is expected to be the largest by 2043

Beijing, 19 December 2024 – China will overtake North America and Europe to become the largest market for aviation services by 2043, with its market value almost tripling from US$23bn in 2024 to US$61bn in 2043 according to Airbus’ latest Global Services Forecast (GSF).

Despite multiple challenges, China’s civil aviation market has been resilient in 2024. A total of 700 million travelers are expected to have flown during the year, representing the highest volume to date. At the same time, the further development of China’s international hub airports have made it easier for connecting with domestic traffic. The services market value in 2024 has grown to US$23bn from US$18.6bn in 2023, or by 24% year on year. 

China continues to show strong fleet growth potential in the next 20 years. By 2043, China will have 11,160 aircraft in service based on Airbus Global Market Forecast, in which 9,520 are new deliveries (including passenger aircraft and freighter), accounting 20% of the global demand. Among the new aircraft, more than 26% are intended to replace the current fleet. Thanks to the strong growth of new deliveries and traffic demand, China’s overall services demand is expected to grow with 5.1% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), making the country the biggest service market in the world. The three main drivers for this growth are the services areas of maintenance, training and operation and solutions for fleet enhancement.

In China, maintenance services represent almost 83% of the total services market. The ‘Maintain’ sector will grow from US$19bn in 2024 to US$51bn in 2043 (+5.3% CAGR) as the fleet expansion and aging fleets drive the growth of maintenance spending, dismantling and recycling demand (CAGR +14.4%) and Used Serviceable Material (USM) business. 

The ‘Enhance’ services, representing 10% of the overall services market and mainly concerning connectivity solutions enabled by digitalisation, is expected to be the sector with fastest growth at a CAGR of 5.6% from US$2 billion in 2024 to US$6 billion in 2043. 

At the same time, new skills are required to secure the growing use of digital and new technologies. For the ‘Train and Operate’ market, there’s a demand of additional 478,000 skilled workers including technicians, pilots and cabin crew with the growth from US$2bn to US$4bn in 2043, all in need of professional training and flight operations solutions.